S01 · Cover
USA Real Estate
Market Outlook
March • 2026
Confidential Material · Distribution Prohibited
S02 · Section Divider — Macro Outlook
Ativore Asset · Market Outlook Q1 2026
01
Section 01

Macro Outlook

Economic growth, inflation, monetary policy and financing conditions shaping the 2026–2027 investment environment.

Confidential Material · Distribution Prohibited5
S03 · Economic Growth — GDP
Ativore Asset · Market Outlook Q1 202601 · Macro Outlook

Economic growth

Soft Landing: Resilient growth despite weak job creation (<0.2%)

GDP Growth
FED Projection Dec/25
FED PROJECTIONS 6% 4% 2% 0% −2% 3.0% 2.6% -2.1% 6.2% 2.5% 2.9% 2.8% 2.2% 1.7% 2.3% 2.0% 1.9% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2025 2026 2027 2028
2025: Jobless Growth
  • Demographic constraints and immigration-policy uncertainty
  • Corporate focus on productivity and automation
  • Investment in digital infrastructure and AI
2026: Temporary Boosts
  • Normalization of federal payments post-shutdown
  • Stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)
FED
Dec/25 projections: 1.7% → 2.3% → 2.0% → 1.9% (2025–2028)
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Federal Reserve Board6
S04 · Long-Term Potential Growth
Ativore Asset · Market Outlook Q1 202601 · Macro Outlook

Long-Term Potential Growth

Productivity becomes the main driver of long-term growth

Potential Labor Force
Potential Labor Force Productivity
Total = Real Potential GDP
CBO PROJECTIONS 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2.4 1.6 4.0% 0.7 2.4 3.1% 1.7 1.4 3.1% 2.0 1.4 3.4% 1.4 0.9 2.3% 1.3 0.7 2.0% 1.6 0.4 2.0% 1.4 0.4 1.8% 1950– 1973 1974– 1981 1982– 1990 1991– 2001 2002– 2007 2008– 2025 2026– 2030 2031– 2036
Labor force constraints
  • Demographic trends point to slower labor-force expansion
  • Productivity gains become more relevant to growth
Key productivity drivers
  • Investment in infrastructure and innovation
  • Emerging technologies, including AI
CBO
2026–2036: productivity displaces demographics as primary growth driver
Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Long-Term Economic Projections7
S08 · TECHNOLOGICAL LEADERSHIP
Ativore Asset · Market Outlook Q1 202601 · Macro Outlook

Technological leadership sustains productivity gains

Investment in critical technologies reinforces U.S. competitive advantage

Source: Investment Strategy Group, The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Conference Board. *Purchasing power parity. Data as of 2025.8
S09 · Post-Pandemic Recovery
Ativore Asset · Market Outlook Q1 202601 · Macro Outlook

U.S. economy leads post-pandemic recovery

Exhibit 3:
GDP vs. Pre-Pandemic Trend

The US is the only major developed country whose economy has resumed growth to its pre-pandemic trend level.

Data through Q3 2025. Forecast through 2026. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Haver Analytics.9